Neeraj Kumar Babloo, the current MLA from Chattapur, may not be nominated by the BJP in the upcoming Bihar assembly election because of strong anti-incumbency sentiment and voter fatigue over broken promises on development issues.
Trends show PM Modi and Amit Shah have been strategically promoting fresh faces and young, energetic cadres in the state assembly elections; now that all state elections are contested in Modi’s name, any senior leaders are replaceable and cannot dare to revolt.
By Sunita Verma
Going by the BJP’s recent assembly election strategy of promoting young workers to beat anti-incumbency factors where it has been in power for a long time, like Haryana, where it won an unprecedented third straight victory, it is likely the same experiment will be repeated in the forthcoming Bihar 2025 assembly election. The NDA led by the BJP-JDU has been in power for a long time, except for two small stints when the JDU-RJD joined hands.
The reason why the BJP is confident in its winning strategy is due to the soaring popularity of the party’s star campaigner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as proven in the recent assembly elections across states in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Delhi. It is in his name and face that the state elections are also being contested, promising an effective double-engine sarkar (government) without projecting any CM’s face. In such a scenario, no leader is irreplaceable. Around 30-40 percent of sitting MLAs are dropped to make way for young local leaders. Gradually senior leaders are being eased out to make way for the young bloods, energising the party. This is best reflected in the CM picks, starting with Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Rajasthan, Haryana, and recently in Delhi. In Bihar, too, deputy CMs, both from the BJP, are new faces.
This has put pressure on the senior leaders who are always reluctant to leave power and make way for young leaders, as in politics there is no retirement age. In Bihar, there is a long list of such MLAs who have been repeatedly given chances despite their poor track records in carrying out development works in their constituency. One such neta is Neeraj Kumar Singh, alias Babloo, a fourth-time MLA from the Chhattapur constituency in the Kosi region of Bihar, considered to be one of the poorest areas. His only claim to fame is that he is a cousin of late Bollywood film star Sushant Singh Rajput, whose mysterious death had attracted media frenzy. He hogged the limelight, giving soundbites every day while his own constituency grappled with perennial issues of flooding and large-scale migrations due to a lack of any development works and job opportunities. His constant neglect of the constituency—despite continuously being MLAs since 2005—has not only caused anger among voters but has also upset local BJP workers. They are unable to get any welfare work done through him, leaving them upset and frustrated. They allege that the MLA, who was also recently made a minister, is surrounded by a coterie that is indulging in various nefarious activities, as such, workers are unable to meet their “extraneous” demands.
Even though Babloo projects himself to be a key leader in the Kosi region, the ground reality is quite different. He has no personal influence or charisma, but during the last election, he managed to beat the anti-incumbency factor due to sympathy votes due to a media frenzy in Bihar over popular actor Sushant’s death. Analysis of the constituency reveals that the voter base of the NDA parties BJP-JDU-HAM-LJP makes it a formidable combination, as was recently proved during the 2024 Lok Sabha election when the sitting JDU MP from Supaul won with a handsome margin despite the RJD-led UPA making all-out efforts. This is due to caste factors, as the area is dominated by ECB and OBC voters. (Dileshwar Kamait, Janata Dal (United), got 5,95,038 votes, around 48.33% of the vote share; Chandrahas Chaupal, of Rashtriya JanaDal, got 4,25,235 votes, a vote share of 34.54%. The seat has been won by JDU three times. The Chhattapur assembly area falls under the Supaul Lok Sabha.
In fact, Bablu’s own Rajput community has even less than one percent of the votes in the Chhattapur constituency. As per data available, SC voters at Chhatapur assembly are approximately 58,721, which is around 18.94% as per the 2011 Census. ST voters at Chhatapur assembly are approximately 2,759, which is around 0.89%, as per the 2011 Census. Muslim voters at Chhatapur assembly are approximately 74,718, which is around 24.1%, as per voter list analysis. Prominent caste-wise voters break down as follows: Yadav 31003, which is 10%; Mandal 19222, which is 6.2%; and Pawan 18602, which is 6%.
With this caste arithmetic, one of the key factors in selecting candidates in Bihar, it makes party cadre wonder why no new leaders are being given a chance, especially from the OBC community? What makes him irreplaceable? Perhaps they wonder if it is due to his money and muscle power. He has a long list of criminal cases and has crafted the image of a bhaubali neta, which helps him to dominate poor and backward voters. But are bhaubhali netas still relevant in progressive Bihar? This is the question that the party’s workers debate and discuss among themselves and admit it has not only lost relevance but is starting to dent the party’s clean image vis-à-vis the opposition party like the RJD. In such circumstances, they find it increasingly difficult to convince voters that their party is `different’ and doesn’t believe in or encourage such elements in the party. Their best argument is that this time senior party leaders will rectify their mistakes, and a new local leader with a clean image will be given a chance.
The senior state leadership has already taken a step in this direction by recently announcing a new district office-bearer. Fresh, young cadres have been given a chance. They all have the potential to replace Babloo and win with solid party support and favourable caste equations. Prominent names among them are Pradip Singh. Vice President of the BJP’s Supaul District, Gauri Bhagat, Narendra Rishidev, and Khokha Babu. All these young leaders have worked hard and are hopeful that this time they will get a chance so that the constituency’s young voters’ aspirations could be fulfilled and meaningful development works could be undertaken. They feel that despite the RJD-led opposition candidate being defeated in the last two elections, their core voter base of MY (Muslim-Yadav) is intact, as could be seen by voting trends of getting (35-38%) of votes. Any small percentage of voters swinging due to the high anti-incumbency coupled with voters anger could easily upset the equation and make the difference in outcomes. This is making the party’s cadres nervous, as they fear Babloo could again manage to get a ticket due to his proximity with a senior leader who himself has joined the party only a few years ago. It is because of this senior leader’s blessings that Babloo was recently once again made minister. But his elevation has not enthused workers; voter fatigue due to the long list of unkept promises is making their jobs extremely difficult. They have run out of excuses and are shuddering at the possibility of once again asking voters to elect him for the fifth time, in case the party again nominates him. They are praying that a better sense prevails on senior leaders to give them a new candidate to beat the anti-incumbency and voter fury.
Disclaimer:
The content of the above article is based on publicly available information, third-party sources, and electoral analysis. The views, opinions, and allegations presented are not independently verified and do not represent the stance of this publication. Readers are encouraged to cross-check facts from official sources before forming conclusions. This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not promote or endorse any political party, candidate, or viewpoint.
